Spring 2021 Forecast!

Good evening!

This is the Spring 2021 forecast for the UK. All thoughts are here mine alone and of no one's input. Without further to do, let's get right into the forecast!

Spring is a complicated season to forecast, I’ve chosen to base my forecast from reanalysis of the ENSO region, -AO winters and a strong westerly descending QBO. As well as this, I’m going to use my own instinct from current winter patterns, after SSW effects and other possible drivers for the following season.

Here is the reanalysis I came up with for March, April and May:

March:

Through reanalysis, we clearly see that the mean wind direction would be easterly. Conditions wettest in the south and driest in the north. What do I interpret though for March?

With SSW after effects, a blocked pattern through February and just coming out of solar minimum, I doubt March will be plain sailing mild. With that said, there will be mild, wet and windy bouts of weather. There is a small chance the UK and Ireland bringing in cold easterly winds through the first half of March but I’d expect this to be mainly featured across Eastern and possibly Central Europe, with that said the first half of March should be much drier than of recent everywhere. The second half of March should feature mainly Atlantic mild weather with short shots of cold from the north or North West, it will likely be quite showery or wet, especially for the west. Temperature anomalies should range between +0.5c to +1.0c. Precipitation will be average or slightly wetter than average across the West and South and drier than average to the North and East.

April:

A very mixed month may be on the cards even though the Atlantic is mainly blocked off. Showery rain will be introduced from the East and North East at times as low pressure may become stuck over Scandinavia. There will be times of showery rain from the Atlantic though it shouldn’t be too often due to Atlantic block. Unfortunately, I don’t expect any early ‘hot’ shots of air from the South although, with drier interludes, it should feel warm and pleasant in the sun. April's central temperature should be between 0.0c and +0.5c. Rainfall should be variable around the country with some places seeing more and some places seeing less to average due to the nature of April's heavy showers!

May:

This month is very tough to predict as always with May, I suspect that there will be shots of hot air, especially from the SE. We may find it could be quite thundery at times inclusively to the East. However, it will be fighting against the Atlantic still trying to pump in low pressure even at this time of year from the West. A month of possibly quite wild swings in weather from temperature to what's happening outside! Temperature anomalies are going to range from +1.2c to +1.7c. Precipitation anomalies will be average in the West and drier than average in the East.

In summary, a warmer than average Spring (between +0.5 and +1c comparing to 1981-2010) but with also very variable weather . A chance for a colder spell in March and possibly hot shots of air in May, the season should finish up close to average rainfall wise in many areas of the UK, we should all get our fair share of rain! It's all up for grabs and shouldn't be a season that disappoints if you are looking for vaŕiable weather!

Thank you for reading,

Stan

Twitter handle: @Stanweather15