Summer 2021 Forecast

HEADLINE: Another mainly cool and wet season?

After quite some time and anticipation, Summer 2021 is just around the corner and you may well be crossing your fingers that the upcoming season is far more generous with the weather it brings, however, I can only present what I’ve collected and give you my thoughts and forecast. Without further ado, let's get into the forecast!

June

The theme of Spring continues. Cool and showery weather will be dominating especially western and central Europe with eastern Europe catching the best of any warm shots of air. I do not expect any prolonged spells of warm weather across the UK although infrequent spells of ‘warmer’ weather is likely at times, particularly between the 1st and 2nd week of June. However, June will be a month where the weather continues to deteriorate and the UK will quickly find itself in a position that has resembled May 2021, wet and cool. Even eastern Europe won’t completely escape this pattern with the cool and wet weather making inroads into most of Europe at times through June. Thunderstorms will be below average across the UK due to the lack of warmth. It is also worth mentioning that June's analogue strongly resembles the analogue of Spring 2021, which is very cool and wet. I forecast the temperature anomaly will be between 0c to -1c for the 1981 - 2010 average across the UK though I wouldn't be surprised if the temperature anomaly comes out cooler. June will be widely wetter than average across the UK.

July

The high pressure moves from Greenland to the mid-Atlantic with low pressure moving from Scandinavia now more centralised across Central and Eastern Europe. Importantly, we see low pressure trying to establish itself more across the North Pole and Greenland which may perhaps allow us to break out of the constant feed of colder air and make the feed of colder air more temporary rather than long-lasting. With that being said, I’m just trying to feed on any optimism that I can see and the overall picture still looks poor for those summer heat fans. What I can say quite confidently is that July will be a drier month across the UK and whether that high pressure moves further west than suggested, we may see a spell or two of warm weather! An improved picture on June but perhaps still not the typical July summer month you’d be expecting. The temperature anomaly will range from +0.4c to -0.6c across the UK and it will be drier than average, especially in the west.

August

Looking at the analogues, it looks like a complete washout although that is mainly contributed thanks to the analogue of August 1956, an absolute shocker and August 1956 is the second coldest August within the 20th century. However, we do have some warm Augusts mixed into the analogue making August a very tough month to predict. I’d like to first comment that August is unlikely to be as it seems on the analogue (i.e. very wet and cold). It’s going to be another mix and match where we see warmer periods of weather followed quickly by a breakdown in the pattern followed by wet, cold and windy weather. The weather across Eastern Europe may be hot at times with the majority of the warm weather being there as the flow of air will be coming from the SW or S. August across the UK will be one of those months with very changeable weather and has the most chance for the warmest spells of weather although those spells of weather will be short-lived. Temperature anomalies will range from +0.5 to -0.5c. Precipitation will be above average.

Summer 2021

What is certain: this summer will not be a classic summer. However, it is likely this summer will not be a complete damp squib with occasional spells of drier weather, particularly in July. The warmest spells of weather are most likely going to occur in early June and through August although they will not be prolonged, there is a chance for a nice warm July if that mid-Atlantic ridge is shifted further west but that is a low probability. Heatwaves and thunderstorms will be below average. There is a chance that this may be a very poor summer with all three months turning out cooler than average and June and August being wet or very wet although this is also a low probability.

June will be the coolest summer month to average and probably the most miserable looking at sunshine hours. July may be quite cool and will likely turn out slightly below average still but a definitely drier month compared to June. August will be very mixed, wet and windy weather will be followed by intervals of warmer and drier weather and so on. August is the toughest month to pinpoint though in the forecast and comes out at low certainty regarding forecasting so that needs to be kept in mind. August will be average temperature-wise and wetter than average regarding precipitation. Therefore, Summer 2021 will be a slightly colder than average season and precipitation will come out wetter than average.

Thank you for reading!

Stan

Twitter: @Stanweather15